My Crystal Ball: Writing the Future of Books

When word came of Borders' bankruptcy, I shrugged and went back to drinking my coffee. Go figure that the first time they'd have a proper, big sale was when they were forced into liquidation. Oh, that reminds me, should I go check my Amazon order status?

It's not my place to surmise what happened to Borders. Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn, for a number of reasons I won't list here.

What I am excited about is the opportunities that I'm seeing pop up for publishing as a result of this and some other changes happening in ye olde book world.

When I went to get my MBA a publishing colleague laughed and said, "After you get your MBA you won't be able to work in publishing anymore!" He said that publishing model would drive someone with a true understanding of business absolutely bonkers. I probably fake smiled- how could I ever leave publishing, the love of my life? Silly boy. But he was right -- it happened exactly as he predicted (maybe we should be looking into his crystal ball, not mine). Now I watch the sport of publishing books as a spectator rather than a centerfielder.

Humble opinions bedamned, this is what I think (hope!) will happen in my beloved book world in the not-so-distant future. These are my predictions not only as a businesswoman but, more importantly, as a reader and someone who will someday have to explain to her (unborn) children that she couldn't pay for their college education because once upon a time mommy just HAD to have multiple copies of the complete works of Kundera, leatherbound Agatha Christies, and...an imported copy of Boy George's autobiography.

So, looking in my crystal ball, here's what I see for the future of books:

1) Back to the Basics.

I hope it means we will see more bookstores that are bookstores, not multimedia toy stores. Once you start selling Gaiam yoga mats and Biggest Loser DVDs, you are kinda losing your focus. If I wanted to go to Costco, I would.


2) Rise of the Indie.

People will start going back to local bookstores, both new and used. Or maybe that's just me - I was thrilled to find out about The Last Bookstore, a massive used book store, opening in downtown LA. So enthused that I trekked over the 405 and got myself there to check it out, only to find out that the shelves weren't totally up yet. Whoops.

As I already griped, Borders' liquidation prices were still above what you'd pay elsewhere. Now that we realize we aren't getting that great of a discount, maybe we'll at least request the service to be rolled in. This is the me-conomy, and we want books that are "just right" for us. And here's where local bookstores win. The mom and pop shops know what their readers enjoy reading, because, well, they talk to their readers. A good bookstore (read: an indie) can talk to you about a few books you haven't been able to put down and then recommend another handful. It becomes a really fulfilling exchange. This is something Borders was never able to accomplish just right- handselling. It's a practiced fine art at my local bookstore, Warwick's in La Jolla.

Get caught up on your local indie bookstores here!: http://www.indiebound.org/


3) The E-Books Sales Graph Will Continue To Go Up.

You don't need Miss Cleo to tell you that people will use their internet-ready eyes to read more and more e-books. I think we have gotten so used to the glare of a screen that, for lots of folks, maybe books printed on boring old paper just didn't cut it. We want instant gratification, and e-books offer that.

As an aside, I think we'll see an e-boost from all the men out there who rush to download books in immense relief. For years men have yearned to read titles like Men are From Mars, Women are From Venus or The Notebook, but didn't want to risk public ridicule to do so. Traditional publishing wisdom is that women are the bigger book buyers, but that might only be because guys didn't have a way to sneak the titles they *really* wanted to read.

I'm hearing more and more friends talk about reading on their iPhones, which is impressive to me, and probably great news to the local opthamologist. Personally, I finally broke down this year and read a book on my iPad and... I loved it. I flew through it, actually; for some reason it was a faster read than I'd anticipated. My problems with lighting/reading in bed were solved. My sole complaint was that I couldn't write and underline in the book, but won't be a problem for people who borrow it from me.

I'll always be a fan of the tactile reading experience, but e-readers aren't so shabby, folks.


4) New Platforms, New Voices.

I love that books are vetted by book publishers, but the fact is that they miss out on some great gems. Sometimes the work and the audience publishers need to sell to don't line up. And it used to be rare for authors to take matters into their own hands and continue to believe in their project. Granted, a lot of them shouldn't. I know, trust me, I've read their queries, and oh have I wanted desperately to stop them before the inevitable crash. But other times, the publisher is the one missing out. The old belief that all self-published books are ipso facto crap doesn't stand true.

Some say the book industry going the way of the dinosaur. But let's not insult dinosaurs; they didn't publish a book by Snookie.

High-level publishing has become a business, and by definition it requires business decisions that won't -- can't -- always be in alignment with artistic ideals or good, fun writing. Independent publishing and on-demand formats are filling the gap by allowing a bit more work to get out there.

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure the books that stink will continue to be sold only to 45 guilt-ridden close family members and friends, and that's fine. But as more people turn directly to sources, or to online to get their book content, and as word of mouth fuels sales and those sales are less expensive for the author to make, well, we might see some writers step up to the mic that pleasantly surprise us.

So, while I'll miss my place to stop off for a 9pm weeknight cup of coffee and scanning of the shelves, Borders will be gone and quickly forgotten by me, and probably many more people like me. Some people don't realize that the traditional publishing is heavily based on big-box stores, like Borders, having leverage before books are even *published*.

Did you know that a proposed book cover design, if it doesn't float with the Barnes & Noble buyer, gets sent back to the drawing board? So instead of books being dictated by outside forces, the rise of independent publishing means and lower costs suggests that maybe, just maybe, we'll see more people -- and publishing houses -- putting art out for art's sake.


5) Return to Library Row.

Things are changing in the media world. In an anecdote I love retelling, a friend's friend said to him "They should have a book thing like Netflix; where you rent them and then return them and someone else can read it."

Um, that's called a library.

Did I mention we're in a recession? I have this vague hope that, as our wallets tighten, we'll start to feel the outline of our library cards in there. You wanna talk about a green movement? Using your library is recycling at its sexiest.

Read about Save the Libraries here.